406
ACUS01 KWNS 230102
SWODY1
SPC AC 230101
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND GREAT BASIN TONIGHT. THE MOST INTENSE CELLS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN
EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CA HAS
TRANSITIONED INTO A BROAD, NEGATIVELY TITLED OPEN WAVE. MID-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS QUITE STRONG ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN AZ, NM, AND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
THE MAIN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD FROM NV
INTO UT AND WY/ID TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH, MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH WERE OBSERVED MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CA/NV INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZ. THIS SHOULD SERVE AS THE
EFFECTIVE WESTERN TERMINUS TO DEEP CONVECTION.
TO THE EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT, ONGOING CONVECTION HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY STRONG AND WELL ORGANIZED OWING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND
STRONG/DEEP, BUT MODESTLY VEERING WIND PROFILES. A MIX OF SUPERCELLS
AND LINEAR CLUSTERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS MAIN BAND
OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO WESTERN NM AND SOUTHERN CO.
BUOYANCY IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG, CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ROBUST
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS (EBWD 50-60 KT) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HAIL
ALONG WITH SEVERE GUSTS. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHWESTERN NM, NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CO
WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED AND TERRAIN INFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
TO THE NORTH, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ONGOING, BUT WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER PRESENTATION. BUOYANCY (MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN
500 J/KG) REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR INTERMITTENT
STRONGER UPDRAFTS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD CORE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD
EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT INTO TONIGHT. WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE STRONG OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD,
THOUGH SPORADIC HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY
ROTATING STORMS ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED.
..LYONS.. 10/23/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page