000
FNUS21 KWNS 231617
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING...FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ALONG WITH A ROBUST SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY,
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND ADJACENT BORDERING ND/SD AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RH REDUCTIONS OF AROUND 20%
WILL PRESENT AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY AMID
SUFFICIENTLY DRY FUELS.
THESE SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAJECTORIES WILL PROMOTE FURTHER DOWNSLOPE
WARMING AND DRYING, RAPIDLY ERODING A SHALLOW TEMPERATURE INVERSION
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED IN THE BIG HORN BASIN WITH WIND GUSTS
IN THE 40-45 MPH RANGE IN THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG HORN RANGE
IN CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN WY. A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS
RANGING FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL PROMOTE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR FAR NORTHEASTERN WY, EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MT AND FAR NORTHWESTERN SD. A MINOR EXPANSION OF
ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE WARRANTED BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE
OBSERVATION TRENDS AND AN EXPECTED DELAY IN COLD FRONT PASSAGE UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING.
..WILLIAMS.. 10/23/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0145 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY, WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN ACROSS MONTANA, WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
..NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY, SOUTHEASTERN
MT, AND WESTERN SD. WITHIN THESE REGIONS, AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-25% WILL OVERLAP WITH SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 20-30 MPH. ADDITIONALLY, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S F ARE FORECAST. A CRITICAL
DELINEATION WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY,
SOUTHEASTERN MT, AND WESTERN SD WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SUSTAINED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AMID DRYING FUELS (70-75TH PERCENTILE ERCS). BROADER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING INTO
THE DAKOTAS.
..GEORGIA
DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
BELOW ELEVATED THRESHOLDS, INCREASED INITIAL ATTACK ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH EXISTING DRY FUELS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page