055
ACUS03 KWNS 231931
SWODY3
SPC AC 231930
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, POSING MAINLY A RISK FOR
HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FAR WEST TEXAS.
...NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS..
IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE AN OVERALL DOWNTREND IN TERMS OF
REGIONAL SEVERE RISK, BUT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS STILL
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
LIKELY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WHILE DEAMPLIFYING/WEAKENING TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
SEVERE-CONDUCIVE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION. WHERE ADEQUATE DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR, MODERATELY
STRONG/VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES (35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR)
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE
RISK, PRIMARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
..GUYER.. 10/23/2026
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