771
ACUS01 KWNS 240601
SWODY1
SPC AC 240559
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS TODAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US AND ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED AS THE PRIMARY VORT MAX LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA.
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE EMERGING FROM NORTHERN BAJA, FORECAST TO DEEPEN
MODESTLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RELATIVELY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRECEDE THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND WEST/SOUTHWEST TEXAS. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
TRAILING FROM A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA. A MUCH
WEAKER SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
A RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS,
AND THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONES, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2KM AGL.
..SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS
INITIAL ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE FOUR CORNERS RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE MOIST AIR MASS AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY (MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION AS EARLY AS 12-13Z. AS WIND FIELDS ALOFT
STRENGTHEN (40-50 KT EBWD), AT LEAST AN ISOLATED RISK FOR HAIL MAY
MATERIALIZE.
MORE ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY OCCUR EAST OF
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATER IN THE DIURNAL CYCLE AS DESTABILIZATION
INCREASES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NM INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TX. MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AMIDST MODESTLY VEERING, BUT ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS PROMOTING ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL
(1-2 INCHES) WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND
COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR LARGER
HAIL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY RESERVOIR ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, AT LEAST SOME CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM OF MODEL HODOGRAPHS COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK WITH
THE MORE STRONGLY ROTATING STORMS.
EVENTUALLY, THE MERIDIONAL NATURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO MORE
CLUSTER/LINEAR STORM MODES INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NM AND
WEST TX. SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH EVENTUALLY CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AND DRIER ENVIRONMENT
FARTHER EAST.
..NORTHEAST NM AND SOUTHEAST CO
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY. AHEAD OF IT, LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WEAK BUOYANCY
SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL INTENSITY, VEERING WIND PROFILES COULD SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF SOME CLUSTERS. A LOW-END RISK FOR
SEVERE GUSTS OR ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
..LYONS/THORNTON.. 10/24/2026
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