030
ACUS11 KWNS 242319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242318
NMZ000-TXZ000-250115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697...
VALID 242318Z - 250115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...HAIL OVER 1.00" DIAMETER AS WELL AS SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF
60-70 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS FAR
WEST TEXAS AND TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
DISCUSSION...BENEATH MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT, STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE US BORDER, AND HAVE
QUICKLY PROGRESSED NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE EL PASO AREA. CELL
MOTIONS ARE MAINLY TOWARD THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, AROUND 205 DEG AT 25
KT ON AVERAGE.
MLCAPE IS OVER 1000 J/KG WITH 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR, WHICH IS
SUPPORTING THE LONG-LIVED CELLS. A FEW CELLS HAVE SHOWN MORE
RIGHTWARD MOTION, SUCH AS THE STORM NORTH OF FORT HANCOCK TX, AND
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS MAY AID STORM
LONGEVITY FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS GENERALLY LOW, BUT UP TO 100 M2/S2 0-1 SRH EXISTS
FOR A RIGHT-MOVING CELL. AS SUCH, ANY MESOCYCLONIC ENHANCEMENT WOULD
LIKELY OCCUR WITH SUCH MOTIONS (CLOSER TO 220-240 DEG).
..JEWELL.. 10/24/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 31880666 32690660 33100643 33320630 33850589 34070549
34110506 34050442 33970438 33680410 32230419 31170457
30660514 31360607 31880666
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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