598
WTPA45 PHFO 062034
TCDCP5
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1100 AM HST SUN AUG 06 2023
WELL-ORGANIZED AND COMPACT DORA REMAINS A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE
AS IT BEGINS ITS JOURNEY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. A WELL DEFINED
CLEAR EYE WITH SOME MARGINAL WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED ON SATELLITE OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK-BASED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PHFO, JTWC AND SAB CAME IN AT 6.5,
CONTINUING TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY AROUND 120 KT. RECENT
CLOUD TOP WARMING COULD SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND, BUT GIVEN DORA'S
RECENT HISTORY OF BEING STRONGER THAN THE FORECAST, COMBINED WITH NO
SCATTEROMETER OR OTHER OBSERVATIONS TO THE CONTRARY, WILL MAINTAIN
THE 120 KT INTENSITY WITH THIS PACKAGE.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DORA MOVES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER IN A NEGLIGIBLE WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE INGESTED INTO THE SYSTEM WITHIN A FEW DAYS AND WILL HELP TO
WEAKEN THE STORM MIDWEEK. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK, HOWEVER THEY VARY WITH REGARDS
TO HOW MUCH WEAKENING OCCURS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE CPHC
INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NHC TREND IN THE LAST FEW ADVISORY
PACKAGES OF BEING A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
DORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK, DORA WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF
HAWAII OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE WEEK, THUS THE FORECAST TRACK
REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 142.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.8N 145.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.4N 152.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.3N 156.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 12.4N 160.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.7N 163.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.9N 171.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 15.8N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER WROE/M BALLARD
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