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WTPA42 PHFO 100851
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1100 PM HST WED AUG 09 2023
INFRARED SATELLITE THIS EVENING SHOWS THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA HAS
FILLED IN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE HAS BROKEN
DOWN WITH A BANDING FEATURE SETTING UP ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A DT OF 5.5 WITH A CI
OF 6.5, A DECREASE FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND ADT AND AIDT
SHOW 5.7/122 KT AND 111 KT RESPECTIVELY. WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OFF
THE PEAK INTENSITY EARLIER TODAY, DORA IS GIVEN AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, KEEPING IT AS A SOLID CATEGORY 4
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
INITIAL MOTION WITH THIS ADVISORY IS 275/19 KT, UNCHANGED FROM THE
LAST THREE ADVISORIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY TIGHT
THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS BECOMING SPREAD OUT AFTER THIS POINT,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 96 HOURS. MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AND THE UPDATED OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. THE
LARGER SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AROUND DORA REMAINS UNCHANGED. STRONG
RIDGING NORTH OF DORA, AND THE WESTWARD MIGRATION OF THIS RIDGING,
ACCOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM'S PROLONGED WESTWARD MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, THE
SLOW AND RECENT INCREASE IN LATITUDE INDICATES THAT DORA IS REACHING
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THIS RIDGING. DORA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
GAINING LATITUDE AND ASSUME A NORTHWEST MOTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AFTER DORA PASSES WEST OF THE DATE LINE
LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WARM WATER, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 28 DEGREES C OR ABOVE, LIES ALONG
THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
THROUGH TAU 48. THE 06Z GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS SHOWS A SLIGHT
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN A MORE DRAMATIC
DECREASE AFTER 60 HOURS AS DORA GAINS LATITUDE AND SHEAR INCREASES.
THE UPDATED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/0900Z 12.1N 169.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 12.6N 172.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 13.7N 175.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.2E 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 16.9N 175.5E 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 17.4N 173.1E 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 18.3N 168.3E 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 20.0N 164.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD
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