727
WTPA42 PHFO 101434
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
500 AM HST THU AUG 10 2023
INFRARED SATELLITE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HURRICANE DORA
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN SINCE THE ANNULAR STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
DIMINISHED YESTERDAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE A DT OF
5.0
WITH A CI OF 6.5. ADT AND AIDT INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF
4.9/102 KT AND 89 KT RESPECTIVELY. DORA IS GIVEN AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, A CATEGORY 3 TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DORA HAS WEAKENED 15 KT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY BASED ON
A CHANGE IN STORM STRUCTURE ALLOWING FOR THE INGESTION OF DRIER
AIR.
INITIAL MOTION WITH THIS ADVISORY IS 275/18 KT, ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH
THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN SPREADS OUT AFTER THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY
AFTER 72 HOURS. SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTH OF PREVIOUS
TRACK AND SLOWED IT DOWN, NUDGING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
SLOW AND RECENT INCREASE IN LATITUDE INDICATES THAT DORA IS REACHING
THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO FAR TO THE NORTH.
DORA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GAINING LATITUDE AND ASSUME A
NORTHWEST MOTION LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
AFTER DORA PASSES WEST OF THE DATE LINE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WARM WATER, WITH TEMPERATURES OF 28 DEGREES C OR ABOVE, LIES ALONG
THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT
THROUGH TAU 36. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS SHOWS A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN A MORE DRAMATIC
DECREASE AFTER 48 HOURS AS DORA GAINS LATITUDE AND SHEAR INCREASES.
THE UPDATED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/1500Z 12.3N 171.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 13.0N 173.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 14.2N 176.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 15.6N 179.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 16.7N 177.7E 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 17.7N 175.2E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 18.2N 172.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 19.1N 168.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 20.9N 164.6E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD
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