644
WTPA42 PHFO 102050
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1100 AM HST THU AUG 10 2023
AFTER WEAKENING OVERNIGHT, A WELL-DEFINED EYE OF HURRICANE DORA
BRIEFLY REEMERGED AROUND AND JUST AFTER AGENCIES CONDUCTED DVORAK
FIXES. HFO, JTWC, AND SAB ALL FOUND A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 5.5/102
KT, BUT GIVEN THE RECENT SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN SATELLITE
PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 105 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/17 KT. THE FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
THROUGH THE NEXT TWO DAYS. DURING THIS TIME, DORA WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION, AS IT
TRAVELS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH FAR TO
THE NORTH. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES BEYOND 48 HOURS, WHEN DORA
WILL APPROACH THE END OF THE RIDGE AND LOSES MORE SPEED OF FORWARD
MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ALTERED LITTLE FROM THE PRIOR
PACKAGE AND IS WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE
TVCN.
WITH RELATIVELY WARM WATER OF 28-29C AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN DORA'S HISTORY OF EXCEEDING INTENSITY PREDICTIONS.
AT ABOUT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHIPS SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD
DURING THIS TIME OF STEADY WEAKENING, AND THE FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE CONSENSUS BEYOND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 10/2100Z 12.7N 173.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 13.6N 175.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 14.9N 178.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.8E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 17.2N 176.5E 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 17.9N 174.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 18.4N 171.8E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 19.6N 167.8E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 21.9N 164.6E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER WROE
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