060
WTPA42 PHFO 110237
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
500 PM HST THU AUG 10 2023
DORA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE TODAY, OVERCOMING WHAT
APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ALOFT WITHIN ITS EASTERN
QUADRANT AT TIMES. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE
THROUGH THE DAY, AND ALL FIX AGENCIES GAVE A FT AND CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 5.5/102 KT, WHILE CIMSS ADT ROSE TO 107 KT JUST AFTER
0000 UTC. GIVEN THE STEADY APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF DORA
HAS BEEN HELD AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH REPRESENTS A BLEND
OF THE INPUTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/17 KT. DORA CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWING A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORWARD MOTION
OF DORA WILL SLOW BETWEEN 36 AND 60 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE
APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. FROM 72 TO 96 HOURS, DORA IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ON A SIMILAR SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO TRACK, FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 120 HOURS. GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES
SLOWLY FROM 36 TO 60 HOURS, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 72 HOURS
ONWARD, LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE AND
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCN NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST
PACKAGE.
DORA CONTINUES TO EXCEED EXPECTATIONS REGARDING INTENSITY, DUE TO
ITS SMALL SIZE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY WARM WATER OF AROUND 28C. GIVEN THIS HISTORY, THE
FORECAST HOLDS DORA STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
NEAR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN SHOWING ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND, THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD DURING THIS TIME OF STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ICON FROM 36 TO
96 HOURS AND WEAKENS DORA SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN THE
CONSENSUS AT 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 13.2N 174.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 14.1N 176.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 15.4N 179.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 16.6N 177.8E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 17.5N 175.5E 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 17.9N 173.4E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 18.2N 171.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 19.3N 167.7E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 21.2N 166.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER WROE
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