333
WTPA42 PHFO 110834
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1100 PM HST THU AUG 10 2023
HURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SMALL EYE THIS EVENING,
SIMILAR TO MUCH OF THE DAY. ALL FIX AGENCIES AGREED WITH A CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 5.5 CORRELATING WITH A MAXIMUM ESTIMATED WIND SPEED
OF 102 KT. CIMSS ADT WAS 110 KT AND AIDT WAS 103 KT JUST
AFTER 0600 UTC. GIVEN THE STEADY APPEARANCE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF DORA HAS BEEN HELD AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, WHICH REPRESENTS
A BLEND OF THE INPUTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/17KT. DORA CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING A TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORWARD MOTION OF DORA WILL
GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT
PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES SLOWLY FROM 24 TO 60 HOURS, THEN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 72
HOURS ONWARD, LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE
AND THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE.
DORA CONTINUES TO EXCEED EXPECTATIONS REGARDING INTENSITY, DUE TO
ITS SMALL SIZE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RELATIVELY WARM WATER OF AROUND 28C. GIVEN THIS HISTORY, THE
FORECAST HOLDS DORA STEADY THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINS
NEAR THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN SHOWING ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND, THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DURING THIS TIME OF
STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOWER
RATE OF WEAKENING COMPARED TO MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. OFFICAL
FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE TWO FORECAST TRENDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 13.7N 176.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 14.8N 178.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 16.1N 178.9E 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 17.1N 176.5E 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 17.8N 174.3E 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 18.1N 172.2E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 18.6N 170.2E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 19.7N 167.2E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 21.4N 165.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD
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