464
WTPA42 PHFO 111435
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
500 AM HST FRI AUG 11 2023
HURRICANE DORA MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT,
BUT IT HAS SINCE MOSTLY FILLED IN. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THE
SOUTHWEST SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE DEGRADING AS IT IS SLOWLY MOVING
INTO AN AREA OF HIGHER SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 FROM PHFO AND SAB CORRELATES WITH A MAXIMUM
ESTIMATED WIND SPEED OF 102 KT, WITH NO CHANGE SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. CIMSS ADT WAS 97 KT AND AIDT WAS 89 KT JUST AFTER 1200
UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF DORA HAS BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO
100 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/17KT. DORA CONTINUES TO
MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE FORWARD MOTION OF DORA WILL GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT PRODUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS, THEN A BIT
MORE NORTHEAST AFTER 60 HOURS TO KEEP CLOSER IN LINE WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCE.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR DORA SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MAXIMUM
WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECREASE
THROUGH 5 DAYS WHEN IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
SHOWS A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD DURING THIS TIME OF
STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE ECMWF WEAKENING QUICKLY AND THE GFS
HOLDING ONTO THE INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. OFFICIAL
FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE TWO FORECAST TRENDS.
DORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC AS A TYPHOON
LATER TODAY. THIS WILL MAKE DORA ONLY THE SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE
ON RECORD TO REACH/MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE EASTERN,
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH DORA OF 1999 ALMOST COMPLETED
THIS FEAT, THE ONLY OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN TO DO THIS WAS
HURRICANE JOHN IN 1994.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 14.5N 178.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 15.7N 180.0E 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 16.9N 177.5E 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 17.8N 175.2E 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 18.3N 173.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 18.7N 171.1E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 19.4N 169.4E 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 21.0N 167.2E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 23.5N 166.2E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER FOSTER/BIRCHARD
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