533
WTPA42 PHFO 112052
TCDCP2
HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP052023
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 11 2023
NEW DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE EYEWALL OF DORA
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, MORE RECENT IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE
EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. IN ADDITION, IMPACTS OF STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR WERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY APPARENT, WITH THE
HIGH LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND
THE CYCLONE'S OVERALL APPEARANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BECOMING VERY
ASYMMETRIC. DORA'S CENTER IS ON THE LIMBS OF THE GOES-18 AND
HIMAWARI FIELDS OF VIEW. MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE HELPED WITH THE
CENTER ADJUSTMENTS, BUT THE LONG DISTANCE FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY
NADIR POINTS ON BOTH SATELLITES COUPLED WITH THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE
HAS RESULTED IN A GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. DVORAK FIXES CAME IN AT 102 KT FROM PHFO, JTWC, AND SAB.
THE ADT AND AIDT ESTIMATES WERE 92 AND 88 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES, AND THE DEGRADATION OF DORA'S
APPEARANCE IN THE SATELLITE IMAGES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 295/16KT. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DORA MOVES ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHEAST. DORA'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SLOWER
GRADUALLY AND TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS
IN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE
FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALIGNED WITH THE TREND OF THE TVCE
CONSENSUS.
DORA'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST, SSTS UNDER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 28C. THE MAIN ISSUE AT THIS
POINT IS THE STRENGTH OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR. GFS AND ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SHEAR STRENGTH,
WITH THE SHEAR IN THE ECMWF REMAINING AT MODERATE TO STRONG
LEVELS BEYOND 48 HOURS, AND THE GFS SHEAR BECOMING MUCH WEAKER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, AND HAFS-B.
THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO, JAPAN UNLESS RE-ENTRY OR SLOW-DOWN OCCURS. FOR U.S.
INTERESTS, SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM, AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN HONOLULU, HAWAII.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 15.3N 179.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER KODAMA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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