354
FXHW60 PHFO 271949
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST WED NOV 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFT FROM A MORE EASTERLY TRADE WIND DIRECTION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN THROUGH THE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT,
MOSTLY WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY DRIVEN BY HIGH
PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE, LIGHT WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 30N140W IS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE SLIGHT REDUCTION IN WIND SPEEDS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A SMALL BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHWARD BRUSHING AGAINST MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES OF BOTH ISLANDS WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. ELSEWHERE, THE DAY
IS LOOKING MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST, AND WINDS WILL VEER
MORE EAST NORTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALMOST THE SAME
ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH TRADES WINDS IN THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS
ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT,
MOSTLY WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE STATE IN A LIGHT WIND AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REACHING
KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KAUAI AND
OAHU. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY FALL ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE.
AVIATION
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES THIS
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH A FOCUS ON WINDWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE IN
EFFECT, NOR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
MODERATE NORTH WINDS BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN NORTH
OF THE ISLANDS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE
WEAKENING FRONT HANGS UP NORTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL RELAX EARLY WEEK
WINDS TO JUST LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES. SEAS MAY REACH AND EXCEED
THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL PASSAGE.
A COMBINATION OF A SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AND
A LINGERING SHORTER PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HOLD SMALL
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES THROUGH
THANKSGIVING. A HURRICANE FORCE LOW APPROXIMATELY 1,600 NAUTICAL
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL SEND A LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE PEAK OF THIS SWELL MAY
POTENTIALLY DRIVE NORTH-FACING SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO WARNING
LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. NORTHWEST SWELL WILL TREND
DOWNWARD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS FALLING
BELOW ADVISORY HEIGHTS SUNDAY.
EAST-FACING SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF BOTH
A LINGERING SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AND A SMALL NORTHEAST
PULSE ARRIVAL THANKSGIVING DAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY SMALL,
DRIVEN BY A MIX OF SHORT PERIOD SOUTHEAST AND BACKGROUND LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. THIS AS A RESULT
OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF NEW ZEALAND THAT WILL AIM HIGHER
SOUTHERLY SWELL TOWARD THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA OVER DRIER LEEWARD ZONES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...BLOOD
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