067
FXHW60 PHFO 280136
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
336 PM HST WED NOV 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
TRADE WINDS THEN STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT FROM A MORE EASTERLY THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH THE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW
CLOUDS AND LIGHT, MOSTLY WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST IS DRIVING MODERATE TRADE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A SMALL
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TRACKING SOUTHWARD
BRUSHING AGAINST THE BIG ISLAND. WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND
WILL SEE SOME CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, BUT ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL VEER MORE EASTERLY AND BOOST INTO THE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH RANGE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES
AND STALLS THEN WEAKENS ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE
LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH A FEW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT, MOSTLY WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL FOLLOW
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE STATE IN A LIGHT WIND AND STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE FRONT REACHING
KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN KAUAI AND
OAHU. RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY FALL ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE.
AVIATION
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY, WITH A
FOCUS ON WINDWARD SLOPES. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT, NOR EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MARINE
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL IN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DOWNSTREAM
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THANKSGIVING
DAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES FROM THROUGH
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE ENHANCED
CHANNELING TRADES BETWEEN MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND HANGS UP NORTH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE STATE WILL RELAX EARLY WEEK
WINDS TO JUST LIGHT AND GENTLE BREEZES. SEAS WILL REACH AND LIKELY
EXCEED THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
THRESHOLD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELL.
A COMBINATION OF SMALL, MEDIUM PERIOD NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL AND
LINGERING SHORTER PERIOD NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL HOLD SMALL
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES THROUGH THANKSGIVING.
A HURRICANE FORCE LOW APPROXIMATELY 1,600 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI WILL SEND A LARGE, LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY. THE PEAK OF THIS SWELL FRIDAY WILL LIKELY DRIVE
NORTH-FACING SHORE SURF HEIGHTS TO WARNING LEVELS LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO THIS SWELL TO ALLOW WEST ENERGY TO CREEP INTO KONA BIG ISLAND'S
WATERS AND PUSH WEST-FACING BIG ISLAND SURF TO 8 FOOT ADVISORY
LEVELS. THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL TREND DOWNWARD FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS FALLING BELOW ADVISORY HEIGHTS ON
SUNDAY.
EAST-FACING SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS, THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF BOTH A LOITERING
SMALL, SHORT PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL AND A SMALL NORTHEAST PULSE
ARRIVAL ON THANKSGIVING.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY SMALL,
DRIVEN BY A MIX OF SHORT PERIOD SOUTHEAST AND BACKGROUND LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER. THIS AS A RESULT
OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF NEW ZEALAND THAT WILL AIM HIGHER
SOUTHERLY SWELL TOWARD THE STATE.
FIRE WEATHER
WE DO NOT FORESEE ANY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA OVER DRIER LEEWARD ZONES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...BLOOD
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