250
FXHW60 PHFO 280633
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
833 PM HST WED NOV 27 2024
SYNOPSIS
STABLE AND RATHER DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY, PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS OVER MAINLY
NORTH AND WINDWARD SLOPES. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND SHIFT
FROM A MORE EASTERLY TRADE WIND DIRECTION FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND BRIEF PASSING OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS AS
THE TRADE WINDS RETURN. TRADE WINDS WILL DECLINE SUNDAY AND MAY
BECOME DISRUPTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STABLE AND RATHER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AS A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE STATE AND A DISTURBANCE PASSES
OVER 550 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. A RIDGE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING VERY
STABLE CONDITIONS WITH AN INVERSION BASED NEAR 5,000 FT, AND
MOISTURE IS LACKING. SEA BREEZES HAVE PRODUCED NO RAINFALL DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG ISLAND,
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING ALONG
WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN SLOPES.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE STATE.
THE DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEND A
NARROW AND SHALLOW BAND OF SHOWERS, LEADING TO A SLIGHT BOOST IN
SHOWERS ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH SLOPES ON KAUAI LATE TONIGHT,
THEN DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY.
TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. VERY STABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ON THURSDAY AS A RIDGE ALOFT PASSES OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY, GIVING WAY TO A SHALLOW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODEST
SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES, AND MOST LEEWARD
AREAS WILL BE DRY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE DISPLACED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MOVE OVERHEAD ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT WEAKENING TRADES ON SUNDAY AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL FAVORING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY
EASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO A MIX OF A MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL AND A LINGERING, SHORTER PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL. A
HURRICANE FORCE LOW AROUND 1500 NM NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
SEND A LARGE, LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, DRIVING SURF HEIGHTS TO HIGH SURF
WARNING (HSW) LEVEL CRITERIA WARNING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS IT PEAKS. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND, WITH SURF POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW THE ADVISORY
LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT
OF THIS SWELL IT WILL ALLOW WEST-FACING BIG ISLAND SURF TO REACH
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CRITERIA OF 8 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT- PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL
AND A SHORT-PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL EXPECTED LATE TOMORROW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS WILL PEAK FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVEL AS THIS NORTHEAST SWELL ARRIVES AND PEAKS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THIS WEEK, DRIVEN BY A MIX OF SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHEAST AND
BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AN UPWARD TREND IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER, DUE TO
AN ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING WITHIN OUR SWELL WINDOW NEAR NEW
ZEALAND.
FIRE WEATHER
ALTHOUGH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE RATHER
LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK INTO
TOMORROW AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW THE CRITICAL LEVEL EVEN AS
STRONGER TRADES DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...AHUE/FOSTER
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...WALSH/SHIGESATO
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