878
FXHW60 PHFO 281409
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
409 AM HST THU NOV 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAIRLY STABLE WITH CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DRIVE MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNDER STABLE FLOW WITH LIMITED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
AND WEAKENS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED
DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT WIND AND STABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER FRONT
REACHING KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY THEN EITHER STALLING OR SLOWLY
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN
LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT FALL FAVORING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS MAY
EASE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL
FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SMALL DUE TO A MIX OF A MEDIUM- PERIOD NORTH- NORTHWEST
SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL. A LARGE TO EXTRA
LARGE LONG- PERIOD WEST- NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY DRIVING
SURF HEIGHTS TO HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVEL CRITERIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS IT PEAKS. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS, WAVE RUNUP TO
COASTAL PROPERTIES ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND RIP CURRENTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COINCIDING WITH
THE HSW WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE
TO SEAS 10 FEET OR GREATER. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND WILL FOLLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SURF POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE WESTERLY
COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL IT WILL ALLOW WEST-FACING BIG ISLAND SURF
TO REACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CRITERIA OF 8 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, DRIVEN BY A MIX OF SHORT-PERIOD
SOUTHEAST AND BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AN
UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER, DUE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL OVER DRIER LEEWARD ZONES INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...SHIGESATO/WALSH
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