568
FXHW60 PHFO 281922
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
922 AM HST THU NOV 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO DRIVE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. CONDITIONS LATE THIS
MORNING REMAIN FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE WITH LIMITED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS
AND WEAKENS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
SUNDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SHOWERS. LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER STATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY THEN
EITHER STALL IN PLACE OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE INTO
FRIDAY. WILL SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING
THIS TIME BUT RAINFALL LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MINIMAL WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A BAND OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE
TRADES MAY BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERALL,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD EASE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THEN STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN SMALL DUE TO A MIX OF A MEDIUM- PERIOD NORTH- NORTHWEST
SWELL AND A SHORTER PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL. A LARGE TO EXTRA
LARGE LONG- PERIOD WEST- NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD FRIDAY
DRIVING SURF HEIGHTS TO HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVEL CRITERIA
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY AS IT PEAKS. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY
COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL, WEST-FACING BIG ISLAND SURF COULD REACH
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CRITERIA OF 8 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
THE EXTRA-LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL HAVE IMPACTS BEYOND
SURF. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS 10 FT OR GREATER WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC OVERTOPPING OF
VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS, WAVE RUNUP TO COASTAL PROPERTIES
ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AND RIP
CURRENTS. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TO COINCIDE WITH
THE HSW.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, DRIVEN BY A MIX OF SHORT-PERIOD
SOUTHEAST AND BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS. AN
UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
DECEMBER, DUE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING WITHIN OUR SWELL
WINDOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER DRIER LEEWARD
ZONES INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...BEDAL
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