850
FXHW60 PHFO 290155
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
355 PM HST THU NOV 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF INCOMING LOW CLOUDS TO WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THAT COULD BRING A SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES
TONIGHT. SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY ALSO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO WINDWARD SLOPES. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MOVE ONTO THE ISLANDS WILL BE LIGHT.
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES SETTING UP.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BEGIN IS FORECAST TO REACH
KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY THEN EITHER STALL IN PLACE OR SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU,
BUT REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LAND AND SEA BREEZES PATTERN OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A SHOWER BAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND MAY
IMPACT KAUAI AND/OR OAHU INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON KAUAI THURSDAY IN A FAIRLY WEAK STATE BEFORE STALLING
OUT AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS IT REACHES HAWAII.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, A BAND OF MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES MAY BRING A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN SHOWERS THIS EVENING. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED
THROUGH TOMORROW.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL HOLD INTO FRIDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. WINDS SHOULD EASE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN A
WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THEN STALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI.
A LARGE TO EXTRA LARGE LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
BUILD IN LATE TONIGHT AND DRIVE SURF HEIGHTS TO HIGH SURF WARNING
LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT OF
THIS SWELL, WEST-FACING BIG ISLAND SURF WILL LIKELY REACH HIGH
SURF ADVISORY (HSA) CRITERIA OF 8 FEET AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS PEAK
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY THEN GRADUALLY DECLINE. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 10 FT IN
THE MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE COASTAL
ROADWAYS AND SOME WAVE RUNUP TO COASTAL PROPERTIES AROUND HIGH
TIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SURF ALONG EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, DRIVEN BY A MIX OF
SHORT-PERIOD SOUTHEAST AND BACKGROUND LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELLS. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER, DUE TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN EVOLVING WITHIN
OUR SWELL WINDOW NEAR NEW ZEALAND.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER DRIER LEEWARD
ZONES INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU, KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI AND FOR
NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF BIG ISLAND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...FOSTER
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...BEDAL
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