503
FXHW60 PHFO 290627
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
827 PM HST THU NOV 28 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL DRIVE MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF INCOMING LOW CLOUDS TO WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND THAT COULD BRING A SOME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES
TONIGHT. SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS MAY ALSO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY TO WINDWARD SLOPES. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE STATE, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
DO MOVE ONTO THE ISLANDS WILL BE LIGHT.
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES SETTING UP.
A STRONGER FRONT WILL APPROACH AND BEGIN IS FORECAST TO REACH
KAUAI AROUND THURSDAY THEN EITHER STALL IN PLACE OR SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU,
BUT REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LAND AND SEA BREEZES PATTERN OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A SHOWER BAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AND MAY
IMPACT KAUAI AND/OR OAHU INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ARRIVE ON KAUAI THURSDAY IN A FAIRLY WEAK STATE BEFORE STALLING
OUT AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE NEXT
WEEKEND. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AS IT REACHES HAWAII.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND WEAKEN THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS RIDING IN ON
THE TRADES AND MAY CAUSE SHRA AND LOW CIGS ALONG WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA BUT OTHERWISE VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ABV 025 FOR WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE MORNING.
MARINE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS
NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME
SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE LONG-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST (310-320 DEG)
SWELL WILL PEAK ABOVE HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) LEVEL CRITERIA LATE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING AT OFFSHORE
NDBC BUOY 51101 REFLECTS LONG PERIOD ENERGY STARTING TO FILL IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, TRANSLATING TO LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS
HITTING THE NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE COASTAL
ROADWAYS, WAVE RUNUP TO COASTAL PROPERTIES ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH
TIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR SEAS
10 FEET OR GREATER OVER MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS, AND A
HIGH SURF WARNING WILL START FRIDAY MORNING AND HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST- FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
STARTING FRIDAY AT NOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SURF POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW
THE ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, A STRETCH OF ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED WITH OVERLAPPING
NORTHWEST PULSES RANGING FROM LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE SURF.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE AN UPTICK FRIDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SERIES OF
CONSECUTIVE PULSES, RANGING FROM SMALL TO MODERATE SURF WITH THE
PEAK DAYS LOOKING TO BE NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER DRIER LEEWARD
ZONES INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-
MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR
KONA-KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...AHUE/FOSTER
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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