742
FXHW60 PHFO 291313
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
313 AM HST FRI NOV 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
FAIRLY STABLE WITH PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNDER STABLE FLOW WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. THIS MORNING'S 12Z SOUNDINGS
AT LIHUE AND HILO SHOW THE TRADE WIND INVERSION AROUND 5000 FT SO
MOST SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE LIGHT.
WINDS LOOK TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
THE STATE, THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE BY
SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS WEAKENS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY
FOCUS OVER INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO THEN APPROACH THE STATE TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE STATE AS PRE-FRONTAL BANDS QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING KAUAI BY
THURSDAY THEN EITHER STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
AND DISSIPATING INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A BAND OF MOISTURE IS
RIDING IN ON THE TRADES AND MAY CAUSE SHRA AND LOW CIGS ALONG
WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. MVFR CONDS EXPECTED IN SHRA BUT
OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ABV 020 FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND AND ABV 025 FOR THE REST THE ISLAND CHAIN. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING MORNING.
MARINE
TRADE WIND SPEEDS HAVE WEAKENED TO GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH AS A
FRONT APPROACHES THEN STALLS AND WEAKENS NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY, BUT WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR LOCALIZED DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP GENTLE
SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE.
THE NDBC OFFSHORE BUOY 51101 SHOWED A RAPID RISE IN SWELL OVERNIGHT,
WITH SWELL HEIGHT SPIKING LIKE A HOCKEY STICK. THIS TRANSLATES TO
A SIMILARLY SHARP INCREASE IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES TODAY. A HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING
THIS MORNING AS THIS LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL (310-320
DEG) WILL FILL IN TODAY AND PEAK THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS,
WAVE RUNUP TO COASTAL PROPERTIES ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR SEAS 10
FEET OR GREATER OVER MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS HAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED STARTING THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST- FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND
STARTING AT NOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND WILL
FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SURF POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, A STRETCH OF ELEVATED SURF IS EXPECTED WITH OVERLAPPING
NORTHWEST PULSES RANGING FROM LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTRA-LARGE
SURF.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK EAST FACING SHORES LOOK TO REMAIN SMALL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE AN UPTICK TODAY THROUGH
THE FIRST WEEK OF DECEMBER FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A SERIES OF
CONSECUTIVE PULSES, RANGING FROM SMALL TO MODERATE SURF WITH THE
PEAK DAYS LOOKING TO BE NEXT WEEK MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER DRIER LEEWARD
AREAS INTO NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL NOON HST SATURDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON HST SATURDAY FOR KONA-
KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL.
DISCUSSION...AHUE
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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