858
FXHW60 PHFO 292002
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1002 AM HST FRI NOV 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH
PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER STABLE AND
MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS TODAY WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE DURING PEAK
HEATING. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES CLOSER TO THE STATE.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, WE SHOULD SEE A LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW ON
SATURDAY WITH DAY TIME SEA BREEZES AND OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES. BY
SUNDAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
A WEAK FRONT PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE STATE MAY BRING SOME
GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, A STRONGER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING KAUAI BY THURSDAY THEN
EITHER STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AND DISSIPATING
INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS LOOK TO RETURN
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT SHOWERS RIDING IN ON THE TRADES THIS MORNING MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS. OTHERWISE,
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. TONIGHT, ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDWARD
SHOWERS, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SELECT
WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
FL250 AND FL450 ACROSS THE STATE.
SIGMET PAPA FOR SEVERE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT FOR AN
AREA JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF SEVERE TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
THE LATEST ADVANCED SCATTEROMETER (ASCAT) PASS FROM LAST NIGHT
INDICATED THAT TRADE WIND SPEEDS HAVE LARGELY WEAKENED INTO THE
GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH RANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN WEAKEN
NORTHWEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, AND LIGHT BACKGROUND
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP
GENTLE SOUTH WINDS IN PLACE.
OFFSHORE BUOY 51101 SHOWED A RAPID RISE IN NW SWELL OVERNIGHT AND
IS WELL ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SHARP INCREASE IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TODAY,
WITH THE HANALEI BUOY ALREADY SHOWING THE NW SWELL AT 13 FEET AS
OF 9AM HST THIS MORNING. A HIGH SURF WARNING (HSW) REMAINS IN
EFFECT AS THIS LARGE TO EXTRA-LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL (310-320 DEG)
FILLS IN AND PEAKS THIS EVENING. BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS, NORTH
SHORE SURF FOR OAHU AND MAUI HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR LATER TODAY
WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATES. EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS AND WAVE RUNUP TO
COASTAL PROPERTIES, ESPECIALLY AROUND HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF COASTAL WATERS FOR GREATER THAN 10 FT SEAS. THIS SCA
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH SATURDAY.
DUE TO THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THIS SWELL, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY
(HSA) HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR WEST-FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND STARTING AT NOON TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS COULD BE
UPGRADED TO A HSW FOR TONIGHT AS THE SWELL FILLS IN. A GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH SURF
POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A STRETCH OF ELEVATED N AND W SHORE
SURF IS EXPECTED, PRODUCED BY OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST PULSES
RANGING FROM LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTRA-LARGE, PARTICULARLY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL. EARLY NEXT WEEK, EAST FACING SHORE SURF WILL
REMAIN SMALL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE AN UPTICK TODAY INTO NEXT
WEEK FROM A SERIES OF CONSECUTIVE SOUTHWEST PULSES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SMALL TO MODERATE SURF, PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
LEEWARD AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL NOON HST SATURDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST SATURDAY FOR KONA-KOHALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...KINO
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page