761
FXHW60 PHFO 300200
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE WITH
PASSING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
DISCUSSION
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS WITH A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS. THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP. THE
COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES AND A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS DUE TO
THE SUBTROPICAL JET COULD PRODUCE A UNIQUE SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
MORNING.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, A MID- LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE STATE WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE STABLE AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME LOW CLOUDS AND
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE STATE MAY BRING SOME
GENTLE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, A STRONGER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING AN UPTICK OF SHOWERS. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONT REACHING KAUAI WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY THEN EITHER STALLING OR SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
AND DISSIPATING INTO FRIDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LOOK TO RETURN BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED LAND AND SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE RIDES IN ON THE TRADES, BRINGING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AREAS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR SELECT
WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MODERATE TURBULENCE BETWEEN
FL250 AND FL450 ACROSS THE STATE.
SIGMET PAPA FOR SEVERE UPPER LEVEL TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT FOR AN
AREA JUST WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA OF SEVERE TURBULENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
GENTLE TO LOCALLY FRESH BACKGROUND WINDS ARE PREVAILING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND THEN WEAKEN NORTHWEST OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, AND LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL SHIFT
TO BLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP GENTLE SOUTH WINDS IN
PLACE.
AN EXTRA-LARGE NORTHWEST (310-320) SWELL CONTINUES TO FILL IN
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE NEARSHORE BUOY
AT HANALEI REPORTING IN THE 19 TO 20 FT RANGE MID-AFTERNOON. THIS
SWELL IS LEADING TO RAPID RISES IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST UPDATES, SURF HEIGHTS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD ALONG NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES FOR MOST ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST BUOY AND SURF OBSERVATIONS. THE HIGH
SURF WARNING (HSW) HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6PM HST TOMORROW, AND
HAS ALSO EXPANDED TO INCLUDE WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC OVERTOPPING OF VULNERABLE
COASTAL ROADWAYS AND WAVE RUNUP TO COASTAL PROPERTIES, ESPECIALLY
AROUND HIGH TIDE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH SURF POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW THE
ADVISORY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS
GREATER THAN 10 FT. THIS SCA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
SATURDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, A STRETCH OF ELEVATED NORTH AND WEST
SHORE SURF IS EXPECTED, PRODUCED BY OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST PULSES
RANGING FROM LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTRA-LARGE, PARTICULARLY FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL. EARLY NEXT WEEK, EAST FACING SHORE SURF WILL
REMAIN SMALL.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE AN UPTICK HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK FROM A SERIES OF CONSECUTIVE SOUTHWEST PULSES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SMALL TO MODERATE SURF, PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SOME RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER
LEEWARD AREAS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KONA-
KOHALA-KAUAI NORTH-KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY-
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...KINO
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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