487  
FXHW60 PHFO 011357  
AFDHFO  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI  
357 AM HST SUN DEC 1 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
LIGHTER LARGE SCALE WINDS TODAY WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES  
TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN  
FAIRLY STABLE AND DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A  
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR ISLAND INTERIOR AND  
MOUNTAIN AREAS. RAINFALL TRENDS WILL INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OUT OVER THE  
ISLANDS. PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WET TRADE WIND WEATHER, WILL LINGER INTO  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE LOOKING  
WITH BANDS OF STABLE CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND A FEW CIRRUS  
CLOUDS DRIFTING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT A LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WIND PATTERN TO START TODAY WITH EXPANDING LAND AND SEA  
BREEZES OVER ALL ISLANDS LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF  
THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING FAIRLY STABLE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST. EXPECT BRIEF SHOWERS IN A LIGHT WIND  
AFTERNOON ONSHORE SEA BREEZE WEATHER REGIME. CLOUDS AND A FEW  
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON OVER ISLAND  
MOUNTAIN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO THE LARGE SCALE ATMOSPHERIC  
STABILITY.  
 
BY THURSDAY, LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHALLOW  
COLD FRONT CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST  
DIRECTION. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP  
ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND AS IT PASSES THROUGH EACH  
ISLAND. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONTAL  
CLOUD AND SHOWER BAND STALLING OUT NEAR MAUI BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
ALL ISLANDS WILL BENEFIT FROM A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS ALONG  
THE FRONTAL BAND, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN  
SLOPES OF EACH ISLAND. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL THEN BREAK APART BY  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH REMNANT UNSTABLE CLOUD BANDS DRIFTING INTO  
EACH ISLAND ON THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS, PRODUCING A  
WET TRADE WIND PATTERN LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH  
THE REST OF TODAY, ALLOWING FOR LAND/SEA BREEZES DEVELOPMENT.  
ISOL SHRA SHOULD FAVOR MAUKA AND INTERIOR AREAS OF EACH ISLAND  
DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON, THEN CLEAR OUT  
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LAND BREEZES. BRIEF MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
IN SHRA, OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.  
 
NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLIES TODAY. A  
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS WEEK AND KEEP  
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE. THE SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY (SCA) FOR WINDWARD WATERS DUE TO LARGE SWELL HAS BEEN  
CANCELLED.  
 
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST (310-320) SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECLINE  
THIS MORNING, BUT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) REMAINS IN EFFECT  
FOR AFFECTED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS  
THROUGH NOON TODAY. THE HSA FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG  
ISLAND HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS  
EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING  
NORTHWEST SWELLS, RANGING FROM LARGE TO POTENTIALLY EXTRA-LARGE,  
WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY. A LARGER ONE WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY  
ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-  
NORTHEAST SWELL. SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL THEN BECOME  
SMALL. SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL SEE AN UPTICK HEADING  
INTO THE WEEK FROM A SERIES OF CONSECUTIVE SOUTHWEST PULSES. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN SMALL TO MODERATE SURF, PEAKING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST  
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME  
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER  
DRIER LEEWARD ZONES. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS WILL  
DEVELOP FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT  
MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN, STALLS OUT AND THEN BREAKS UP NEAR  
MAUI.  
 
 
   
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-  
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-  
KOOLAU WINDWARD-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-  
WINDWARD HALEAKALA.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...BOHLIN  
AVIATION...WALSH  
MARINE...POWELL  
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