014
FXHW60 PHFO 020201
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
401 PM HST SUN DEC 1 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHTER LARGE-SCALE WINDS WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO OCCUR
OVER ALL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT FAIRLY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EACH AFTERNOON FAVORING ISLAND INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS. RAINFALL TRENDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN STALLS NEAR MAUI. PERIODS OF
PASSING SHOWERS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL LINGER
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE IN PLACE TODAY. AFTERNOON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER ISLAND
INTERIORS AS A RESULT OF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT, WHILE ISOLATED
STABLE CLOUDS DRIFT OVER THE WATERS. THE AFTERNOON BALLOON
SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS
AROUND 5000 FEET, SIGNIFYING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.9 TO 1 INCH RANGE, STILL WELL BELOW THE
AVERAGE OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER JUST SOUTH OF
THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING THESE STABLE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST TO GO ALONG WITH THE LIGHT WINDS. THEREFORE, EXPECT
CLOUDS AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
OVER ISLAND MOUNTAIN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS EACH DAY AS THE SEA
BREEZES KICK IN, FOLLOWED BY CLEARING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
THE LAND BREEZES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY AND DRY AIR IN PLACE.
BY THURSDAY, LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHALLOW
COLD FRONT CREEPING INTO THE WESTERN ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT PASSES THROUGH EACH ISLAND. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS FRONTAL CLOUD AND SHOWER
BAND STALLING OUT NEAR MAUI BY FRIDAY MORNING. ALL ISLANDS WILL
BENEFIT FROM A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THE FRONT WILL
THEN BREAK APART BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH REMNANT UNSTABLE
CLOUD/SHOWER BANDS DRIFTING INTO THE ISLANDS ON THE STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND INTERIOR CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY LAND
BREEZES AND CLEARING FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS TONIGHT. BRIEF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS MAY OCCUR AROUND THE CLOUD BUILD UPS, BUT
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT OR
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR DIURNAL PATTERN
EXCEPT FOR AROUND KAUAI WHERE GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN.
MARINE
LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW HAS SHIFTED TO BECOME PREDOMINATELY
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY. AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL
RETURN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A SHALLOW COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST (310-320) SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECLINE,
AND SURF AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THEREFORE,
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY.
WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL BOOSTS IN SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HOWEVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST
IN A SERIES OF OVERLAPPING NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL BEGIN ARRIVING
LATE MONDAY. AN ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. A
COUPLE OF LARGER BOOSTS IN NORTH SHORE SURF WILL COME LATER IN THE
WEEK WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A SLIGHT
BOOST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM A SERIES OF CONSECUTIVE
SOUTHWEST PULSES. SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH SHORE SURF CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
ADDITIONAL SOUTH PULSE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL DECLINE AND THEN REMAIN SMALL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A LINGERING SMALL NORTH-NORTHEAST
SWELL FADES THROUGH MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, AS WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE
DRIER LEEWARD AREAS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, INCREASING
MOISTURE AND RAINFALL TRENDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN,
THEN STALLS AND BREAKS UP NEAR MAUI.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...VAUGHAN
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