579
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON DEC 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES EACH DAY AND
LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAUAI ON
THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE AROUND OAHU OR MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND IT.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR DAY TIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHT TIME LAND
BREEZES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAY TIME SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. OVER ON THE BIG ISLAND, THERE IS A POCKET OF
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AROUND KAUAI. WITH THE INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS,
SOME PREFRONTAL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
OVER KAUAI WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR THROUGH KAUAI WITH SOME PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS INCREASING OVER OAHU AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE NEAR
OAHU OR MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST TRADES ON FRIDAY. WITH THE REMNANT
MOISTURE STILL LINGERING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON FRIDAY, SOME
AREAS COULD BE QUITE SHOWERY ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
A DEEP RIDGE OVER HAWAII WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE AND RATHER DRY
LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS, BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AROUND KAUAI, BUT ALL ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
THAT WILL GENERATE SOME INTERIOR CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL MAINLY BE VFR, AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT
LAND BREEZES WILL LEAD TO CLEARING OVER MOST AREAS. NO AIRMETS
ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
NORTH OF THE STATE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY, MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND AND
DISSIPATING FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY
BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND A WEAK HIGH
DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
A SERIES OF NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY A COMPLEX GALE LOW
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A MODERATE,
MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
FILL IN THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK LATE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A SECOND,
SIMILARLY SIZED, BUT SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO OVERLAP ON TUESDAY MORNING. SURF HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO PEAK NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THEN HOLD JUST BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF LARGER NORTHWEST SWELLS
(310-330 DEGREE) MAY BOOST SURF WELL ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THE COMPOUNDING SWELLS WOULD ALSO LIKELY ELEVATE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS OF 10 FEET
DURING THIS TIME.
AN OUT-OF-SEASON, LONG-PERIOD, SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY,
GENERATING NEAR SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED SLOWLY FILL IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL DECLINE AS A LINGERING SMALL,
SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL FADES TODAY AND WIND SWELLS
REMAIN SMALL DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SHOWERS INCREASING
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL OVER
LEEWARD AREAS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...KINO
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...TS
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