213
FXHW60 PHFO 030116
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
316 PM HST MON DEC 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH LIGHT WINDS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES EACH DAY AND
LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KAUAI ON
THURSDAY THEN DISSIPATE AROUND OAHU OR MAUI COUNTY ON FRIDAY. THE
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
IT.
DISCUSSION
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A BACKGROUND SOUTHERLY FLOW. WINDS SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR DAY TIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHT TIME LAND
BREEZES. DAY TIME SEA BREEZES WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER
INTERIOR AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OVER ON THE BIG ISLAND, THERE IS A POCKET OF MOISTURE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST
BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STARTING WEDNESDAY, A FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE STATE FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
ESPECIALLY AROUND KAUAI. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI. BY THURSDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER OR THROUGH KAUAI WITH SOME PREFRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASING
OVER OAHU AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO EVENTUALLY STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE NEAR OAHU OR MAUI COUNTY ON
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE, BUT IT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO SOME MUCH NEEDED
LOCATIONS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, IN THE AREA WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. TRADES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
ANOTHER FRONT PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE, WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE
TRADES. WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND STILL REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME TYPE OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE STATE. STAY TUNED FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION
A DEEP RIDGE OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE AND RATHER DRY
LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN AND PREVAILING VFR FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL
ISLANDS, BACKGROUND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
AROUND KAUAI, BUT ALL ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
THAT WILL GENERATE SOME INTERIOR CLOUDS EACH AFTERNOON. ANY
CEILINGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR, AND LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZES WILL LEAD TO CLEARING OVER MOST AREAS. NO
AIRMETS ANTICIPATED.
MARINE
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN GENTLE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
NORTH OF THE STATE. A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST
OFFSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY, MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
THURSDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR MAUI AND DISSIPATING FRIDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY
TRADES AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND A WEAK HIGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF
THE STATE.
A SERIES OF NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY A COMPLEX GALE LOW
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. A MODERATE,
MEDIUM-PERIOD NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREE) SWELL IS RUNNING A BIT
BEHIND GUIDANCE, SO NOW EXPECTING IT TO FILL IN LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AND PEAK LATE TUESDAY MORNING. A SECOND, SIMILARLY-
SIZED, BUT SLIGHTLY LONGER-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP ON TUESDAY MORNING. SURF HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PEAK
AT OR JUST ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY THEN HOLD JUST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF LARGER NORTHWEST
SWELLS (310-330 DEGREE) MAY BOOST SURF WELL ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE COMPOUNDING SWELLS WOULD ALSO LIKELY
ELEVATE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS ABOVE SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLDS OF
10 FEET DURING THIS TIME.
AN OUT-OF-SEASON, LONG-PERIOD, SMALL SOUTH SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY,
GENERATING NEAR SUMMERTIME AVERAGE SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES.
THEN SLOWLY TREND DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SMALL, LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED SLOWLY FILL IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AND PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL DECLINE AS A LINGERING SMALL,
SHORT-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL FADES TODAY AND WIND SWELLS
REMAIN SMALL DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY BRIEFLY
APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE WEEK, WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SHOWERS INCREASING
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, COULD BRING SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...KINO
AVIATION...WROE
MARINE...TS
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