073
FXHW60 PHFO 031916
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
916 AM HST MON MAR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED WINDWARD AND MAUKA.
DISCUSSION
MORNING SOUNDINGS OUT OF LIHUE AND HILO INDICATE A STRENGTHENING
TRADE WIND INVERSION AND POOR SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, A CONSEQUENCE OF THE DRY AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN
PARKED OVER THE AREA RECENTLY. THIS SUPPORTS MORNING SATELLITE
AND RADAR IMAGERY WHICH SHOW A RATHER MEAGER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
DESPITE THE RETURN OF STRENGTHENING TRADES. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD WILL BRING ACTIVE SUBSIDENCE AND A
TREND TOWARD GREATER STABILITY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME
TIME, BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES TRANSPORT GREATER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL
DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD. PEAK
SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS BREEZY
TRADES USHER REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS 1037MB HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA. PATTERN
RECOGNITION AND THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGEST
BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER ZONES. OBSERVATIONS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO BECOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY, AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN AND PASSES BY JUST NORTH OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SLOPES DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF
ISLAND TERRAIN IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO STRONG-
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE LEVELS LATER TODAY, THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-
GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN
SMALL THIS MORNING BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FRESH WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST (300-320 DEGREES)
SWELL MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS
BEGAN RISING RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH PEAK ENERGY CENTERED IN
THE 15- TO 17-SECOND BAND. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER
UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COUPLE OF NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD
TREND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...GIBBS
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