851
FXHW60 PHFO 040102
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
302 PM HST MON MAR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED WINDWARD AND MAUKA.
DISCUSSION
AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS OUT OF LIHUE AND HILO INDICATE A
STRENGTHENING TRADE WIND INVERSION AND POOR SATURATION THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, A CONSEQUENCE OF THE DRY AIRMASS
THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA RECENTLY. THIS SUPPORTS
AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WHICH SHOW A RATHER MEAGER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DESPITE THE RETURN OF STRENGTHENING TRADES.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVERHEAD WILL BRING ACTIVE
SUBSIDENCE AND A TREND TOWARD GREATER STABILITY AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. AT THE SAME TIME, BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES TRANSPORT
GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING A RETURN TO A
TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD.
PEAK SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
BREEZY TRADES USHER REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE LOCAL GRADIENT WILL RAMP UP CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS 1037MB HIGH PRESSURE ESTABLISHES NORTH OF THE AREA. THE LATEST
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE TYPICAL WINDIER ZONES OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND WITH
SOME FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS EVEN GETTING IN ON STRONGER WINDS.
HOWEVER, MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW SLIGHT DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH RETURNING TRADES WHICH
WILL TEND TO LIMIT FORCING FOR DESCENT AND LARGER SCALE SUPPORT
FOR HIGHER END WIND GUSTS AND DOWNSLOPING. THIS PRECLUDES ISSUANCE
OF AN ADVISORY FOR EITHER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
JUST NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND
BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF
ISLAND TERRAIN IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS
AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO STRONG-
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE LEVELS TONIGHT, THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-GENERATED
SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL STEADILY
RISE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN PEAK THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A FRESH NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREES) SWELL
BUILDS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. OFFSHORE BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE
BEEN CLIMBING ALL DAY, BUT SEEM TO BE AT/NEAR THE PREDICTED PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON. NEARSHORE PACIOOS BUOYS ARE NOW DEPICTING A RISING
TREND WITHIN THE 16-20 SECOND BANDS AT HANALEI AND WAIMEA. EXPECT
THE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, THEN EASE
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED
LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST (320-330
DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-
KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...GIBBS
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