832
FXHW60 PHFO 040617
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
817 PM HST MON MAR 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED
AROUND 125 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI, WHILE A STRONG 1033 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED AROUND 800 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE GRADIENT LOCALLY
HAS TIGHTENED UP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH
BREEZY TRADES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS, WITH A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER IN SOME WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS AS WELL AS
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS A FEW
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. MAIN SHORT FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND THE
STRONG WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE BEING
QUICKLY REPLACED BY A NEW STRONG HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE WINDS APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THE WINDIER MAUI
COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND ZONES. WE WILL MONITOR OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAKE A DECISION ON THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY
WITH THE MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE.
AS FOR THE REMAINING WEATHER DETAILS, FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER FEATURING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LEEWARD SPILLOVER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. RATHER DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS
KAUAI AND OAHU HOWEVER, WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN TRADE
WIND SHOWERS HERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. A MORE UNIFORM AND TYPICAL TRADE
WIND REGIME SHOULD TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS FAVORING
WINDWARD/MAUKA AREAS AND A FEW SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD AREAS FROM
TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE ASSOICATED WITH AN OLD FRONT APPEARS TO
GET PUSHED THROUGH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY, INCREASING TRADE WIND
SHOWER COVERAGE. FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER SHOULD FILL
BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
PERIODIC BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVING IN ON THE TRADES AND INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE AS THEY DO.
AVIATION
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TRADE WINDS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND
TERRAIN IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS AND
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO STRONG
TO NEAR GALE FORCE LEVELS FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS SHOULD TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLAND WATERS FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT PERIOD WIND
WAVES AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAII REGION. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL PEAK THIS
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A FRESH NORTHWEST (310-320
DEGREES) SWELL BUILDS DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. OFFSHORE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS SEEM TO REACH THE PREDICTED PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT SURF HEIGHTS TO REACH LOW END ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, THEN
GRADUALLY EASE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...BOHLIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page