377
FXHW60 PHFO 041300
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 AM HST TUE MAR 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
AROUND 850 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU, AND IS DRIVING BREEZY TO WINDY
TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN
WINDWARD AREAS, WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN MOST LEEWARD
LOCALES. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWERS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
MAIN SHORT FOCUS REVOLVES AROUND THE STRONG WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL NEED FOR A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE BEING QUICKLY REPLACED BY A NEW STRONG
HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE WINDS APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND AS A RESULT, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON KAUAI AND OAHU.
AS FOR THE REMAINING WEATHER DETAILS, FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER FEATURING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LEEWARD SPILLOVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
EASTERN ISLANDS TODAY WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS PRESENT,
BEFORE THE SHOWER BECOME MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN OLD FRONT APPEARS TO GET PUSHED
THROUGH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE TRADE
WIND SHOWER COVERAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH. FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER SHOULD THEN FILL BACK IN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVING
IN ON THE TRADES AND INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE AS THEY DO.
AVIATION
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TRADE WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LOW-LEVEL
TURBULENCE IN THE LEE OF MOUNTAIN TERRAIN, SEE AIRMET TANGO FOR
DETAILS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND
TERRAIN IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE
WINDS AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
HAWAIIAN WATERS INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LINGERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS SHOULD TREND SLIGHTLY
LOWER FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
ISLAND WATERS FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES AND NORTHWEST
SWELLS MOVING THROUGH THE HAWAII REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND
HIGHER SEAS.
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL HOLD
AT LOW END HIGH SURF ADVISORY (HSA) LEVELS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES AS A NORTHWEST
(310-320 DEGREES) SWELL CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SURF HEIGHTS WILL FALL JUST BELOW HSA THRESHOLDS BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS
AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-
WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-
MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY
NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...THOMAS
MARINE...BOHLIN
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