931
FXHW60 PHFO 041900
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST TUE MAR 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
DISCUSSION
STRONG TRADES IN FULL SWING THIS MORNING WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 69 AND
51 MPH AT THE PUULOA STATION ALONG THE RIDGE OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAIN RANGE (BIG ISLAND) AND THE MECO KEALALOLOA RIDGE STATION
ON LEEWARD MAUI RESPECTIVELY. MEANWHILE, SUSTAINED WINDS AT SOUTH
POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND PEAKED AT 32 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, TRADES ARE GUSTY BUT GENERALLY FALL SHORT OF THE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE WITH DIURNAL HEATING BY
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE INHERITED WIND
ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS
RETREATING TO ONLY THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCALES BEFORE EXPANDING IN
COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY. THE ISLANDS REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND STABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AT THE
SURFACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN OCCASIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS THE MID-LATITUDE
STORM TRACK REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND OCCASIONALLY TAMPS DOWN
RIDGING IN THE LOWER LATITUDES OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS WILL
IN TURN SUPPORT MEAN HIGH PRESSURE LOCALLY WITH AREAS OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE PERIODICALLY BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA THAT WILL
STRENGTHEN TRADES, AS IS THE CASE TODAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT BREEZY
TO STRONG TRADES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA. AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA.
AVIATION
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL GRADUALLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND BRING BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY GENERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE LEE OF MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN, SEE AIRMET TANGO FOR DETAILS. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND BRIEF
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS, PARTICULARLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW 8000
FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND TERRAIN DUE TO THE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE TRADES REMAIN ELEVATED.
MARINE
STRONG- TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION
OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING
THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES PEAKED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL STEADILY EASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY DUE TO A
NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREES) SWELL IMPACTING THE AREA. OFFSHORE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS AND HAVE BEEN LOWERING OVERNIGHT.
SIMILAR TRENDS ARE SHOWN AT THE HANALEI AND WAIMEA NEARSHORE
PACIOOS BUOYS, WITH THE PEAK SWELL ENERGY NOW DOWN INTO THE 12-14
SECOND BANDS. AS A RESULT, THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL END AT/BY NOON TODAY, AS THE
SWELL EASES INTO MIDWEEK. ANOTHER UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF NORTHWEST (320-330
DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE PEAK
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...GIBBS
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