742
FXHW60 PHFO 050622
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
822 PM HST TUE MAR 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
BRINGING A RETURN TO A TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. A COUPLE OLD FRONT
MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS THURSDAY, AND AGAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG 1037 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
AROUND 900 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU, AND IS DRIVING
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS EVENING.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD AREAS, WITH COVERAGE THE HIGHEST
ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY. MAIN SHORT FOCUS REMAINS ON THE
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT BUILDS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS A NEW STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
A NEW STRONG HIGH REPLACING IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY
TRADES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK. THE WINDS APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG
ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY.
AS FOR THE REMAINING WEATHER DETAILS, FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER FEATURING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LEEWARD SPILLOVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OLD FRONT MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE FIRST MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY, AND THE NEXT IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS
IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO
THE STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG- TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-
PERIOD WIND-GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, SOME WATERS MAY FALL OUT OF THE ADVISORY THURSDAY AS AN OLD
BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND A WEAKNESS FORMS IN
THE SURFACE RIDGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. ANOTHER
UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COUPLE OF NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...GIBBS
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