049
FXHW60 PHFO 051300
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
300 AM HST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD SLOPES AND
COASTS WHILE A FEW SHOWERS REACH LEEWARD COMMUNITIES AS WELL. A
COUPLE OLD FRONTS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
THURSDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
AROUND 1000 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU, AND IS DRIVING
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE, WITH CLOUD COVERAGE THE GREATEST IN
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING INTO WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS, WITH
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS REACHING LEEWARD COMMUNITIES. MAIN SHORT
FOCUS REMAINS ON THE STRONG WINDS TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM NORTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY AS A NEW STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH A
NEW STRONG HIGH REPLACING IT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE WINDS APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH TODAY, AND A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MAUI COUNTY AND BIG
ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING.
AS FOR THE REMAINING WEATHER DETAILS, FAIRLY TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER FEATURING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
OCCASIONAL LEEWARD SPILLOVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OLD FRONTS MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND
SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE FIRST PASSING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY, AND THE NEXT DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME
FRAME.
AVIATION
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
THURSDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE
FORECAST ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG
NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE
CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG- TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-
GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE INTO THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JELSEMA
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...GIBBS
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