639
FXHW60 PHFO 051921
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
921 AM HST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS, WITH A FEW BRIEFLY PASSING
OVER LEEWARD COMMUNITIES ON THE GUSTY TRADES. BANDS OF MOISTURE
MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS THURSDAY, AND AGAIN
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THE TRADES
ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ROUGHLY 1000 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
HAS WEAKENED AND RAISED THE INVERSION, BUT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE REGION REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME STABILITY. AS A
RESULT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND, MAUI, AND LANAI WHERE A
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
HIGH BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CREEP EASTWARD TONIGHT, LEADING
TO A SLIGHTLY EASING OF THE WINDS. A RATHER TYPICAL PATTERN OF
MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS, WITH A FEW BRIEFLY SPREADING LEEWARD,
WILL PERSIST. A BAND OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADES WILL FUEL
MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADES WILL EASE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY LEVELS LATE THURSDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH IS
PUSHED EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
AREA OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STATE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PASS OVER THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BY
THURSDAY. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
STRONG TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-
GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH= AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE INTO THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD
TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI MAUKA-
KAHOOLAWE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND
INTERIOR-MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH
HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...BRAVENDER
MARINE...FOSTER
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