919
FXHW60 PHFO 060137
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
337 PM HST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS, AND SOME WILL BRIEFLY PASS
OVER LEEWARD COMMUNITIES ON THE GUSTY WINDS. BANDS OF MOISTURE
WITHIN THE TRADES WILL BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THE
TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A STRONG 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
NEARLY 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE INVERSION SOMEWHAT WEAK AND ELEVATED, BUT A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME STABILITY. AS A RESULT, WINDS CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND, MAUI, AND
LANAI WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND CREEP EASTWARD TONIGHT, LEADING TO
SLIGHTLY EASING WINDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR DOWNSLOPING WINDS THAT TEND TO BE PREVALENT
DURING THE EVENING. A RATHER TYPICAL PATTERN OF MAINLY WINDWARD
SHOWERS, WITH A FEW BRIEFLY SPREADING LEEWARD, WILL PERSIST. A
BAND OF SHALLOW MOISTURE IN THE TRADES WILL FUEL MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU, WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADES WILL EASE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
BREEZY LEVELS LATE THURSDAY AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH IS
PUSHED EASTWARD. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN LATE SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
AREA OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STATE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY PASS OVER THE ISLANDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND PRODUCE AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TOMORROW. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE STRONGER
TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-
GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AND MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE WEEKEND DUE
TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE INTO THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.
DISCUSSION...WROE
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...FOSTER
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