272
FXHW60 PHFO 060635
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
835 PM HST WED MAR 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY STABLE AND BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH NEARBY
WILL KEEP THE INVERSION SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL
INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE
THROUGH.
ONE SUCH MOISTURE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN WINDWARD
SHOWER ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT, THOUGH SOME MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
DRIFT OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
TRADE WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A FRONT PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE RIDGE. HOWEVER,
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR OUR TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
ANOTHER SHALLOW MOISTURE BAND MOVING IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED WINDWARD SHOWERS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS TOMORROW. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST, FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS IN THE
OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WINDS. THIS AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE STRONGER
TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DRIVE STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELS AND
ACROSS MOST WINDWARD WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A
COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST
SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR A
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR ALL COASTAL MARINE ZONES.
THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE INTO THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR LANAI MAUKA-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-
MOLOKAI-LANAI WINDWARD-LANAI LEEWARD-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY SOUTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH HALEAKALA-BIG
ISLAND SOUTH-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST-BIG ISLAND NORTH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...BEDAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page