893
FXHW60 PHFO 061311
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
311 AM HST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY STABLE AND BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH NEARBY
WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, ALLOWING FOR
OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
ONE SUCH MOISTURE BAND HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BRINGING AN UPTICK IN WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR MOST
AREAS. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND LIGHT, THOUGH SOME MAY
HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY DRIFT OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
TRADE WINDS MAY EASE SLIGHTLY LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
FRONT PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH WEAKENS THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
REBUILDS TO THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
OUR TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
ANOTHER SHALLOW MOISTURE BAND MOVING IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED WINDWARD SHOWERS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES. LOW CIGS AND SHRA SHOULD FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SHRA OTHERWISE VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW LEVEL TURB BELOW 080
OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE STRONGER
TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL DRIVE STRONG
TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THROUGH CHANNELS AND
ACROSS MOST WINDWARD WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A
COMBINATION OF SHORT-PERIOD WIND-GENERATED SEAS AND NORTHWEST
SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR A
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL COASTAL MARINE ZONES. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN LATER PACKAGES.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL CONTINUE TO
EASE INTO THURSDAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD TREND
IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COUPLE OF
NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELLS ARRIVE, PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS BACK TO ADVISORY
LEVELS AT THE PEAK LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A DOWNWARD TREND
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...BEDAL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page