499
FXHW60 PHFO 061955
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
955 AM HST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FRONT PASSING NORTH
OF THE STATE TODAY HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND
THE TRADES HAVE WEAKENED A TOUCH FROM YESTERDAY. BANDS OF MOISTURE
WILL RIDE IN WITH THE TRADES FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING, THERE IS ONE LARGE BAND
OF MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE
AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS A NOTCH WITH WIDESPREAD
STRONG TRADE WINDS EXPECTED. BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
RIDE IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS AND PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH A FEW LEEWARD SHOWERS
AS WELL. WINDS COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR SOME OF
THE WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS
WEEKEND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, STRONG TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE STATE
TODAY SHOULD RIDE IN WITH THE STRONG TRADES AROUND MONDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE AND COULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ON THIS BAND OF MOISTURE, THERE ARE SUBTLE TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODEL WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOISTURE
MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN
SHOWERS, THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 080 OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
STRONGER TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF WIND-GENERATED SEAS AND
NORTHWEST SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR A
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL
TODAY AS A NORTHWEST SWELL MOVES OUT. AN UPWARD TREND IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER NORTHWEST (320-330 DEGREES) SWELL MOVES IN.
THIS SWELL LOOKS TO PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH
SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...FOSTER/AHUE
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