681
FXHW60 PHFO 070156
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 PM HST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST-NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. ONE OF THE MANY BANDS OF MOISTURE
SHOULD BE ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. A FRONT PASSING NORTH
OF THE STATE TODAY HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY AND
THE TRADES HAVE WEAKENED A TOUCH FROM YESTERDAY. BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL RIDE IN WITH THE TRADES FROM TIME TO TIME AND WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, THERE IS ONE
LARGE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT LOOKS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AND WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHOWERY WEATHER OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE
AND WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS A NOTCH WITH WIDESPREAD
WINDY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. BANDS OF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS AND PASSING
SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH A
FEW LEEWARD SHOWERS AS WELL. WINDS COULD REACH WIND ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FOR SOME OF THE WINDIER AREAS BUT AT THIS TIME, THE
TRADE WIND INVERSION DOES NOT LOOK VERY STRONG TO PRODUCE REALLY
GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WINDY TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE STATE AND MAY
EVEN STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
STRONG HIGH BUILDS FAR NORTH OF THE STATE. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT PASSING FAR NORTH OF THE STATE TODAY SHOULD RIDE IN WITH
THE STRONG TRADES AROUND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND COULD
PRODUCE SOME MODERATE RAINFALL OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ON
THIS BAND OF MOISTURE, THERE ARE SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE MODEL WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE MOISTURE MOVING IN SUNDAY
NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS IT IN ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
EXPECT BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADES TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CEILINGS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND
MAUKA LOCATIONS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN
SHOWERS, THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. PERIODS OF LOWER VISIBILITY
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM VOLCANO AROUND SOUTH POINT TO PHKO AND OVER
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WATERS DUE TO VOG EMISSIONS FROM KILAUEA.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
BELOW 080 OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE
STRONGER TRADE WINDS.
MARINE
STRONG TO NEAR GALE-FORCE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ROUGH, WITH A COMBINATION OF WIND-DRIVEN SEAS AND NORTHWEST
SWELLS MOVING THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TONIGHT AS A NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREES) SWELL BUILDS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS. THIS SWELL LOOKS TO PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. A
DOWNWARD TREND IS THEN EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST SWELL SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, WITH MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...FOSTER/AHUE
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