586
FXHW60 PHFO 070639
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
839 PM HST THU MAR 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A MOSTLY STABLE AND
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
ONE SUCH MOISTURE BAND IS APPROACHING THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING,
AS SHOWN ON SATELLITE, AND WILL LIKELY BRING AN UPTICK IN
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF BUT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO DRIFT OVER LEEWARD AREAS
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THE BREEZY TRADES AND WEAKENED/LIFTED
INVERSION.
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING TO NORTH. BY SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A
ROBUST HIGH POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A PERIOD OF WET AND
WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING SOME
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH, PARTICULARLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH, MUCH DRIER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW, WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN SOME
WINDWARD AREAS LATER TONIGHT.
MARINE
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT OF
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1,100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL
MAINTAIN THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE WEEKEND. A HIGH
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST REPLACING THE CURRENT HIGH WILL KEEP THE
GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AMPED UP TRADES WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELLS
AND DAYS OF THESE STRONGER TRADES WILL MAINTAIN WIND-DRIVEN WAVES
AND ROUGH SEAS. AN ALL-WATER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEAR FUTURE DUE TO THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS.
SURF ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL SLOWLY RISE
TONIGHT AS A NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL BUILDS INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL
MAY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AND IS FORECAST TO
PEAK FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL THEN DECLINE
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADES OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS PASS AROUND THE STATE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...BLOOD
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