731
FXHW60 PHFO 071303
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 AM HST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
ONE SUCH MOISTURE BAND IS IMPACTING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING, AS
SHOWN ON SATELLITE/RADAR, AND HAS LED TO AN UPTICK IN WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. SOME SHOWERS
MAY ALSO DRIFT OVER LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THE
BREEZY TRADES AND WEAKENED/LIFTED INVERSION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR FILLS IN FOLLOWING THIS BAND
OF MOISTURE.
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONGER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT PASSING TO NORTH. BY SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY TRADES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A
ROBUST HIGH POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH, PARTICULARLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. ONCE
THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH, MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW, WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AIRMET SIERRA IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST FACING SECTIONS OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LYING ACROSS THE STATE. LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1,100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SLOW EASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AMPED UP TRADES
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PASSAGE OF A SERIES OF MODERATE SIZE
NORTHWEST SWELLS AND DAYS OF THESE STRONGER TRADES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND-DRIVEN WAVES AND ROUGH SEAS. AN ALL-WATER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR FUTURE DUE TO THIS
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE
DAY AS A SOMEWHAT LARGE NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE), LONGER PERIOD
SWELL MOVES AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS SWELL MAY PUSH SURF
HEIGHTS TO ADVISORY LEVELS AS IT PEAKS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SWELL WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL FROM
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THIS PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS MAINLY
BACKGROUND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS PASS AROUND THE STATE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...JELSEMA
MARINE...BLOOD
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