521
FXHW60 PHFO 071905
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
905 AM HST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
ONE SUCH MOISTURE BAND IS IMPACTING THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING, AS
SHOWN ON SATELLITE/RADAR, AND HAS LED TO AN UPTICK IN WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY BE BRIEF BUT
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. SOME SHOWERS
MAY ALSO DRIFT OVER LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THE
BREEZY TRADES AND WEAKENED/LIFTED INVERSION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE LATER TODAY AS SOME DRIER AIR FILLS IN FOLLOWING THIS BAND
OF MOISTURE.
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER HIGH
BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. BY SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY
TRADES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS
IN TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A
ROBUST HIGH POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE ISLANDS WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS/VIS, PARTICULARLY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA. ONCE THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS
MORNING, DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW, WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ACROSS
NORTH THROUGH EAST FACING SECTIONS OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING
AND THE AIRMET CAN BE DROPPED AT THAT TIME.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SERIES OF STRONG HIGHS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS WITH NEAR GALES FOR OUR WINDIER CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY
AS A MODERATE NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREE) SWELL FILLS IN ACROSS THE
STATE. ANOTHER REINFORCING PULSE FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD FILL IN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND WILL LIKELY PUSH SURF HEIGHTS TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT DECLINES.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THIS PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE WINDSWELL A TOUCH AROUND TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AS MAINLY BACKGROUND
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS PASS AROUND THE STATE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WED.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...KINO
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