200
FXHW60 PHFO 080145
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 PM HST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING PERIODS OF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS AS BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM
INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY TO LOCALLY
WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
NEARBY WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED,
ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW
BANDS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. BY
SUNDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY TRADES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS IN TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS OF
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, TRADES WILL REMAIN STRONG WITH A
ROBUST HIGH POSITIONED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF WET
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS OCCURRING BETWEEN MID-MORNING AND LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WINDWARD AREAS ON THE
TRADE WINDS, MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MORNING
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS/VIS ARE LIKELY IN PASSING SHOWERS,
THOUGH VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE TERRAIN OF ALL ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SERIES OF STRONG HIGHS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS WITH NEAR GALES FOR OUR WINDIER CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS.
AS THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHWEST (310-320 DEGREE) SWELL BEGINS TO
FADE TONIGHT, A SLIGHTLY LARGER REINFORCING PULSE FROM THE
NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) WILL FILL IN TONIGHT AND PEAK LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE BUOYS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS
STARTING TO SHOW A RISE IN THE 14 TO 16 SECOND ENERGY BANDS AND
THIS SWELL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT DECLINES.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THIS PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE WINDSWELL A TOUCH AROUND TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL WITH MAINLY SOME
WRAP AROUND WIND SWELL FOR SELECT EXPOSURES. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SATURDAY
FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI
WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...KINO
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