481
FXHW60 PHFO 080705
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
905 PM HST FRI MAR 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE DAY-TO-DAY WEATHER PATTERN AS BANDS
OF HIGHER MOISTURE PASS THROUGH WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED TRADE
FLOW. FREQUENT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG
WINDWARD AND UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES WITH LESS FREQUENT SHOWERS
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS LEEWARD COMMUNITIES.
DISCUSSION
A TYPICAL WET SEASON SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. HAWAII IS IN BETWEEN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND A SHARPENING NORTHEAST UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING INTO
THE NEXT U.S. WEST COAST WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM (EARLY NEXT WEEK).
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN THE BENEFICIARY OF CONTINUED AMPED UP
TRADE WIND FLOW AS A 1035 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1,200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE ISLANDS. NEAR TERM NWP MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH
MESOSCALE TO MACROSCALE CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO, THIS RECENT
SLIGHTLY MORE WET WEATHER PATTERN UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
BREEZY TRADES WILL BE ON A CONTINUOUS LOOP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH. THE PRESENCE OF THE VICINITY UPPER TROUGH, WHILE
SLOWLY EXITING STAGE RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL HAVE ENOUGH
OF AN INFLUENCE TO KEEP A WEAKER MID LEVEL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WEAK
INVERSION IN PLACE. AS BANDS OF HIGHER LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVANCE IN ON EASTERLY STEERING FLOW WITHIN THIS MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE FREQUENT
SHOWER EPISODES. WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED IN ANY PARTICULAR
AREA DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS, HIGHER RAIN
ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY OCCUR OVER MORE WINDWARD COASTAL AND
UPSLOPE MAUKA LOCATIONS.
TRADES WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WELL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURFACE HIGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
REPLACES THE CURRENT WEAKENING HIGH. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM
GRADIENT GOING INTO TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE TAUNT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
40 MPH-PLUS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVER MAUI COUNTY
OR BIG ISLAND'S RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. THE ONLY OTHER
MINOR WEATHER CAVEAT TO MENTION WILL BE WHEN THE REMNANTS OF A
DYING FRONT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE
ISLANDS MONDAY. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY HANGING UP IN THE VICINITY
OF THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL PROVIDE A MORE RICH UPSTREAM
MOISTURE SOURCE. THIS MAY SUBTLY INCREASE EARLY WEEK WINDWARD
POPS A TOUCH BUT CHANCES ARE, WITH HIGHER MID LAYER MOISTURE
RIDING IN ON ITS HEELS, IT WILL BECOME MORE NOISE THAN SIGNAL AND
PROBABLY GOING LARGELY UNNOTICED IN THE LARGE SCHEME.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CIGS
AND SHRA POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY IN SHRA, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SERIES OF STRONG HIGHS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS FOR ALL ZONES WITH NEAR GALES FOR OUR WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE GRADUALLY AS A
MODERATE MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL
WILL PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE BUOYS NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI IS STARTING TO SHOW A RISE IN THE 14 TO 16 SECOND ENERGY
BANDS AND THIS SWELL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WILL THEN BEGIN TO FALL FROM LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SWELL DIRECTION WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AS IT DECLINES.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THIS PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE WINDSWELL A TOUCH AROUND TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL WITH MAINLY SOME
WRAP AROUND WIND SWELL FOR SELECT EXPOSURES. A SMALL LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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