783
FXHW60 PHFO 081331
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
331 AM HST SAT MAR 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE MONTH. BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE
WITHIN ESTABLISHED TRADE FLOW WILL PROMOTE FREQUENT SCATTERED
SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION WILL PRIMARILY FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD AND
UPSLOPE MAUKA EXPOSURES WITH LESS FREQUENT SHOWERS QUICKLY MOVING
ACROSS LEEWARD COMMUNITIES.
DISCUSSION
A TYPICAL WET SEASON SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC. MORE WET AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL
THEME THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HAWAII IS IN BETWEEN A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A SHARPENING NORTHEAST UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENING AND MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE HIGHEST 24 HOUR RAIN HAS PRIMARILY BEEN OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD
OR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS MOUNT WAIALEALE ON KAUAI, AND THE
UPPER CENTRAL AND MANOA VALLEYS ON OAHU WHERE OVER AN INCH HAS
FALLEN SINCE SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN THE
BENEFICIARY OF CONTINUED AMPED UP TRADE FLOW AS A 1035 SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1,200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE AREA MAINTAINS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. NEAR TERM NWP MODEL
GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE MESOSCALE TO MACROSCALE
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO, THIS RECENT SLIGHTLY MORE WET WEATHER
PATTERN UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY TRADES WILL BE ON A
CONTINUOUS LOOP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH. THE PRESENCE
OF THE PROXIMITY EASTERN UPPER TROUGH, WHILE SLOWLY EXITING STAGE
RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE TO
KEEP A WEAKER MID LEVEL SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WEAK INVERSION IN PLACE.
AS BANDS OF LOWER TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCE IN ON EASTERLY
STEERING FLOW WITHIN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE REGIONAL ENVIRONMENT,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE FREQUENT SHOWER EPISODES. WHILE RAINFALL
WILL NOT BE ANCHORED TO ANY PARTICULAR AREA DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THESE SHOWERS, HIGHER RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY
OCCUR OVER MORE WINDWARD COASTAL AND UPSLOPE MAUKA LOCATIONS.
HEAVIER, VISIBILITY-LIMITING MARITIME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE HIGHER MOISTURE BAND DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND WITHIN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME THROUGH TUESDAY.
HAZE WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND AND AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLAND.
TRADES WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY WELL INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A SECONDARY SURFACE HIGH DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
REPLACES THE CURRENT WEAKENING HIGH. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE TAUNT ENOUGH TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
TO SUPPORT 40 MPH-PLUS WIND ADVISORY LEVEL HIGH TERRAIN WIND
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER BETTER EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS AND WITHIN
VALLEYS. THE ONLY OTHER MINOR WEATHER CAVEAT WILL BE WHEN THE
REMNANTS OF A DYING FRONT HANGING UP NORTH OF THE STATE SETTLE
SOUTH INTO THE ISLANDS MONDAY. THIS DIFFUSE BOUNDARY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN NEARSHORE WATERS WILL PROVIDE A MORE
RICH UPSTREAM MOISTURE SOURCE FOR ENHANCED RAIN. THIS MAY SUBTLY
INCREASE EARLY WEEK WINDWARD POPS A TOUCH BUT CHANCES ARE, WITH
HIGHER MID LAYER MOISTURE RIDING IN ON ITS HEELS, IT WILL BECOME
MORE NOISE THAN SIGNAL...GOING LARGELY UNNOTICED IN THE LARGE
SCHEME OF OVERALL REPEAT RAIN EVENTS.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOW CIGS
AND SHRA POSSIBLE OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDS ARE LIKELY IN SHRA, BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOD LOW-LEVEL TURB OVER AND
DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SERIES OF STRONG HIGHS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS FOR ALL ZONES WITH NEAR GALES FOR OUR WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE GRADUALLY AS A
MODERATE MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL
THROUGH THE DAY. OFFSHORE NDBC BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED TO RISE
OVERNIGHT, TRANSLATING TO ADVISORY LEVEL SURF THROUGH THE DAY. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF SURF
HEIGHTS PERSISTS ABOVE CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL
THEN BEGIN TO FALL TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE SWELL
DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST AS IT
DECLINES.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THIS PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND UPSTREAM
OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE WINDSWELL A TOUCH AROUND TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL WITH MAINLY SOME
WRAP AROUND WIND SWELL FOR SELECT EXPOSURES. A SMALL, LONG PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...BLOOD
AVIATION...WALSH
MARINE...SHIGESATO
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