952
FXHW60 PHFO 081912 CCA
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
854 AM HST SAT MAR 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG TRADES CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE EASING SLIGHTLY IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING LATER NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME, PARTICULARLY
OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
PROMINENT FEATURE ON REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS THE REMNANT FRONT
CURRENTLY POSITIONED AROUND 300 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. GOES SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGEST SATURATION THROUGH THE LOWEST 10KFT OR SO WITHIN
THIS BAND AS IT IS FORCED SOUTH TOWARD THE STATE BY AGGRESSIVELY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, EVENTUALLY REACHING KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. IN THE MEANTIME, STRONG TRADES WILL DELIVER CONTINUED
SCATTERED SHOWERS WINDWARD AND MAUKA, SHOWER INTENSITY CAPPED BY A
STRENGTHENING INVERSION AVERAGING ABOUT 7KFT OVER THE STATE.
INCREASING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING REMNANT FRONT
WILL REACH KAUAI EARLY SUNDAY, OAHU DURING MIDDAY, AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME, EXPECT
AN EXPANSION OF SHOWER COVERAGE AND MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY
ALONG RELATIVELY DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORTING FREQUENT LEEWARD
PENETRATION OF SHOWERS.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE STOUT LOW-LEVEL DRY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF
THE PASSING FRONTAL BAND ON MONDAY WITH THE INVERSION POTENTIALLY
CRASHING TO 5KFT OR EVEN LOWER BY DAY'S END. COUPLED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING GRADIENT AS 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD 30N,
THE SHALLOW INVERSION AND FORCING FOR DESCENT WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD LEAD TO SOME OVERACHIEVING WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON THAT COULD APPROACH THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THE GRADIENT
REACHES PEAK INTENSITY ON TUESDAY, THOUGH IT IS MODELED TO OCCUR
COINCIDENT WITH THE RETURN OF INCREASING MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADES WHICH MAY COMPROMISE HIGHER END WIND GUST POTENTIAL AS THE
INVERSION LIFTS AND WEAKENS. ALL TOLD, BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
TRADES HOLD THROUGH MID-WEEK, EASING THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGHING WEST OF THE STATE.
AVIATION
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BATCHES
OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADES WILL DELIVER PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AREAS IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG
WINDWARD AREAS AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE BROUGHT IN ON THE
TRADES THIS MORNING.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
A SERIES OF STRONG HIGHS TO OUR NORTH WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE
WINDS FOR ALL ZONES WITH NEAR GALES FOR THE WINDIER WATERS AND
CHANNELS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND ELEVATED
SEAS, AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL RISE GRADUALLY AS A
MODERATE, MEDIUM- TO LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST (310-330 DEGREE) SWELL
FILLS IN THROUGH THE DAY. OFFSHORE NDBC BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED TO
RISE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TODAY.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF SURF
HEIGHTS PERSIST ABOVE CRITERIA INTO TONIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT DECLINES TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN ROUGH INTO NEXT WEEK DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE FLOW OVER AND
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. TRADES COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN FURTHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD INCREASE THE WINDSWELL A TOUCH THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL WITH MAINLY SOME
WRAP AROUND WIND SWELL FOR SELECT EXPOSURES. A SMALL, LONG-PERIOD
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEDNESDAY.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-KAUAI
NORTH-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MOLOKAI NORTH-MOLOKAI WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY NORTH-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...TS
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