235
FXHW60 PHFO 101327
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
327 AM HST MON MAR 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WET AND WINDY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ISLANDS.
WHILE MOST SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA LOCATIONS, SOME
WILL PERIODICALLY REACH LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY TUESDAY AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. BREEZY TO WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MIDWEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY EASING BY FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO
THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SHOWING A STRONG LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS HOLDING FIRM
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY TRADE WINDS. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LINGERING NEARBY
WILL KEEP THE INVERSION WEAK AND SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, ALLOWING FOR
OCCASIONAL INCREASES IN WINDWARD SHOWERS AS SHALLOW BANDS OF
MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
THIS MORNING, THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT, SHOWN ON SATELLITE AS
A SHALLOW BAND OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE, HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN,
WITH FREQUENT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS THAT ARE OCCASIONALLY
REACHING LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE LATEST RAINFALL
SUMMARY SHOWED PEAK TOTALS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS (THROUGH 2 AM
HST) UP TO 3 INCHES ON KAUAI AND UP TO AROUND AN INCH ON OAHU AND
MAUI. THE BAND WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
ISLANDS TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING AWAY BY TUESDAY, ALLOWING DRIER AIR
TO FILL IN.
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE BREEZY TO WINDY RANGE TODAY, WITH
A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING STRONGER
TRADES, LIKELY REACHING WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. DESPITE THE
DRIER AIR EXPECTED, SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNINGS AS AREAS OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH.
BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN, ALLOWING
TRADE WINDS TO GRADUALLY EASE. EASTERLY WINDS MAY ALSO VEER
SLIGHTLY MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH ALOFT DEVELOPS WELL
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS SHIFT COULD LEAD TO A FURTHER
WEAKENING TREND IN THE TRADES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
A LONG BAND OF UNSTABLE CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN
OLD COLD FRONT, CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH TODAY. EXPECT WET AND BREEZY TRADE WIND WEATHER BRINGING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO ALL ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF KAUAI, OAHU, MOLOKAI, MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND AS THE REMNANT CLOUD BAND CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD INTO THE ISLANDS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE
OVER AND DOWNWIND OF ISLAND TERRAIN. THIS AIRMET IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AIRMET TANGO WAS ALSO ISSUED
FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE ALOFT BETWEEN FL270 AND FL360 DUE TO A
LINGERING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM.
MARINE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII WILL
MAINTAIN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ITSELF AND LOWER
EQUATORIAL PRESSURE, RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH TO
STRONG TRADE WINDS. THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED COLD
FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE STATE TODAY AND BRING GUSTY
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. TUESDAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY, EXPECT STRONG- TO NEAR GALE-FORCE TRADE WINDS,
WITH THE STRONGEST OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AND CHANNELS
SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR THE STRONG WINDS AND RESULTING ROUGH SEAS.
THE CURRENT MODERATE, MEDIUM PERIOD, NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL (340
DEGREE) WILL STEADILY EASE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SLIGHTLY LARGER,
LONG-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST (330 DEGREE) SWELL WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A REINFORCING LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELL (310 DEGREE) ON ITS HEELS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER AND
UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS. SURF WILL NEAR HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CRITERIA TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS TRADES PEAK IN STRENGTH.
SURF ALONG SOUTH-FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL, ASIDE FROM THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP FROM THE EASTERLY WIND WAVES MAKING IT
INTO THE MORE EASTERN-FACING SOUTHERN EXPOSURES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-
DISCUSSION...GIBBS
AVIATION...BOHLIN
MARINE...THOMAS
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