915
FXHW60 PHFO 131303
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
303 AM HST SUN APR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH FEWER
WINDWARD SHOWERS, AND A GREATER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON INTERIOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. BATCHES OF MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THESE TRADES WILL
PERIODICALLY FILTER IN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN, BRINGING CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS THAT WILL GENERALLY FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MID WEEK, BRINGING SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT, WHICH MAY HELP TO ENHANCE WINDWARD SHOWERS AT
TIMES.
HEADING INTO MIDWEEK, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE FAR
NORTH WILL DISPLACE THE RIDGE TO BRING IT CLOSER TO, OR OVER, THE
ISLAND CHAIN. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A
FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING LIGHTER SOUTHEAST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE AND GENERALLY DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME. THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS AND MORNINGS GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR/LEEWARD AREAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC AND
MOVE OVERHEAD BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH
POCKETS OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ON THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND FROM THE WEST ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONT/TROUGH MAY LEAD TO ENHANCED DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVER ISLAND INTERIORS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY BEYOND. A STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION ALOFT WILL KEEP
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST ACTIVE IN THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND FAVOR
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS.
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OCCASIONAL MODERATE TURBULENCE
BELOW 8000 FEET OVER AND TO THE LEE OF HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AT SUMMIT LEVEL.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION HAS BEEN CANCELED, BUT
CONDITIONS COULD REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO
STRONG TRADES THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
(SCA) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. THE TRADES WILL
GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN BECOME FURTHER
DISRUPTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS AN APPROACHING FRONT INDUCES
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE WESTERN WATERS AS A RESULT,
WHILE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SPEEDS.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY, AND WILL BE RATHER ROUGH DUE TO THE STRONG TRADES,
PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE TRADES DIMINISH SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
NORTH SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN VERY SMALL TODAY. A SMALL TO MODERATE
SIZED NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GIVE A BOOST TO SURF ALONG NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DECLINE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A NEW MODERATE SIZED NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF TO NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FRIDAY, THEN LOWERING NEXT
WEEKEND.
SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL REMAIN SMALL AND MOSTLY AT
BACKGROUND LEVELS THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.
DISCUSSION...FARRIS
AVIATION...BEDAL
MARINE...JELSEMA
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