326
FXHW60 PHFO 290157
AFDHFO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
357 PM HST WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A
DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING FAR WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL
LIKELY BRING AN INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL
CAUSE THE TRADE WINDS TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SEA BREEZES
COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
AND SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SELECT LEEWARD AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. TRADE
WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ACROSS
SELECT LEEWARD AREAS, WHICH HAS LED TO SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES. FOR THE MOST PART, THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AS SEEN ON THE 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE. THE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST NORTH OF OAHU WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THANKS TO THE STRONG TRADE WIND INVERSION AND LOWER THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS HAD VERY LITTLE
IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE. THE ONE AREA THAT WAS
IMPACTED WAS THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE A WIND ADVISORY
WAS IN EFFECT EARLIER TODAY. WIND OBSERVATIONS DID SHOW WINDS
DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, THUS THE WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN A BIT BREEZY ON THE
SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN A NOTCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. PASSING
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT SHOWER INTENSITY WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE DUE TO THE STABLE
CONDITIONS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FAR WEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO VEER TOWARDS THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY. THIS COULD BRING AN
INCREASE OF HAZY CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE EMISSIONS FROM
KILAUEA. OTHERWISE, AN INCREASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE STATE. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO SHOW THE INCREASE OF CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND,
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ECMWF SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND, PASSING SHOWERS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS ON
SATURDAY. WITH THE TRADE WINDS VEERING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, THIS
WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO DECREASE ACROSS MANY LEEWARD AREAS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SELECT LEEWARD AREAS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY, USHERING IN LIMITED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL BUILD OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS
THROUGH TOMORROW.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH TOMORROW.
MARINE
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL KEEP TRADE
WINDS GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE STRENGTHEN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SMALL FOR MOST SHORES TODAY. SURF
HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A BRIEF NORTH-NORTHWEST (330-340 DEG) SWELL
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A LARGER NORTH-NORTHWEST (330-340 DEG)
SWELL WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING MODERATE
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES, BEFORE RAPIDLY
DECLINING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES, SURF HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND STAY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY AS
A SERIES OF SOUTHERLY PULSES MOVE THROUGH. SURF WILL THEN DECREASE
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS SWELL FADES.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...KINO
AVIATION...FARRIS
MARINE...TSAMOUS
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